Fallon Poised to Win in IA-03

Ed Fallon has been having a great week in Iowa's Third District. The EENR-endorsed challenger to Blue Dog Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell picked up the endorsement of The Des Moines Register and has had a week of extremely positive press. This has been due in part to Boswell's refusal to debate, changing his excuse from time to time, but mostly claiming he is too busy in Washington to debate -- even though Congress is in recess. After he turned down all 12 debate offers, several groups hosted an empty chair debate with Fallon on Wednesday night. An hour before the debate, Boswell appeared on a local radio program, "Outdoors with Outdoor Dan," and minutes after it started he was at a reception elsewhere in town.

Another factor has been a series of negative mailers from Boswell's campaign and from a 527 group headed by a Boswell supporter. The latter sent a mailer attacking Fallon for being the lone vote against a 2002 bill forbidding anyone on the sex offender registry from living within 2,000 feet of a school or daycare. Ironically, the same day the mailer arrived, The Des Moines Register endorsement came out, citing Fallon's lone vote as the right one on a law now almost universally criticized by prosecutors, police, and those who work with victims of sexual abuse. The mailer included Fallon's campaign phone number and encouraged people to call and complain, but the campaign reports that calls are heavily running in favor of Fallon and include formerly undecided and Boswell supporters who have switched to Fallon because of the sleazy mailer.

The really good news, however, is in the numbers. There was one poll of the race over a month ago by Research 2000, which showed Boswell with a large lead. The poll, based on 400 voters, was conducted by the same outfit that underestimated Fallon's performance in the 2006 gubernatorial primary by 100%. They had predicted he would get 13% in the three-way race, but he received 26% of the vote. But I've gotten access to the Fallon campaign's internal numbers, and they are impressive.

Fallon's campaign has been conducting an extensive voter ID effort that is based on more than 20 times the number of voters as the Research 2000 poll. I've talked with the scientist who examined their data and made changes to remove bias. The numbers show a consistent lead for Fallon across the district. I checked with them as recently as this morning, and their numbers show Fallon continuing to climb and Boswell having plateaued. If the Fallon people match or surpass Boswell on GOTV (and they will!), Fallon wins.

Iowa's Third District is well on its way to replacing a pro-Bush Democrat with a progressive Edwards Democrat. The big concern is whether the onslaught of negative mailers (three in two days this week) and TV commercials will suppress turnout for Fallon. If you could make a donation to his campaign, it could help him counter the attacks from Boswell and the 527.